EU Carbon Markets at a Decision Point: Key Takeaways from the Argus Europe Carbon Conference 2026

The EU ETS review dominated Day 1. The consensus across sessions was that maintaining the EU's emissions reduction trajectory while preserving industrial competitiveness will require significant integration of carbon removal credits and international credits into the system. The mechanics of how that integration works, and at what scale, remain unresolved.

The commercial implication is clear. If removals integration proceeds, it creates a substantial compliance demand signal for the EU removals market. If it does not, or if EUA prices fail to rise enough to incentivise large-scale procurement, the demand expected to underpin CRCF supply will need to come from somewhere else. With carbon price increases politically constrained and revenue support mechanisms still uncertain, the path to a meaningful demand signal from the ETS alone is narrower than the supply side assumes.

The final pieces of CRCF policy architecture are being finalised this year, with first issuances expected from 2027 once the Commission recognises certification schemes for verification. Supply is advancing on schedule. The harder question, raised consistently across multiple sessions, is who will buy the credits and under what use case.

Eventual integration into the EU ETS for engineered removals is one route. The EU Buyers' Club, announced in December 2025 as part of the new Bioeconomy Strategy, is designed to pool voluntary demand from private and public buyers for CRCF-certified credits, with the Commission running surveys and workshops to design the structure. But with the Green Claims Directive likely to be withdrawn and no clear corporate use case yet established, the incentive for participation remains soft. This is a demand-side policy question, not a supply-side one.

Day 2 confirmed what the aviation market has been signalling for months. CORSIA implementation has been uneven, and ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed airlines to prioritise jet fuel availability over compliance carbon procurement. Several airlines have paused purchasing despite having compliance processes in place.

The picture is further complicated by the EU's active evaluation of CORSIA's effectiveness and whether to extend the EU ETS to international aviation. For airlines making procurement decisions today, the policy environment offers too much uncertainty to commit at scale, even as supply slowly comes online and corresponding adjustment bottlenecks ease. The result is a market with reasonable supply, hesitant buyers, and a policy framework that is being reassessed in real time.

A recurring theme across sessions was the cumulative effect of buyer silence on price discovery. According to Carbon Direct, 55% of all spot market retirements between 2023 and 2025 were anonymous, and nearly 40% of high-durability offtakes signed in 2025 did not disclose the buyer. That silence makes it harder for suppliers, investors and other buyers to read demand signals accurately or price accordingly.

The structural causes are familiar. Market complexity across standards, methodologies, vintages and pricing models. Standards bodies still in motion, with SBTi's draft Net-Zero Standard V2.0 yet to be finalised on the question of neutralisation. Claims and litigation risk that makes inaction feel safer than engagement. Until at least one of those factors shifts, the demand signal risks remaining muted regardless of supply readiness.

The European carbon market is in a peculiar position. The infrastructure for supply is forming, the policy frameworks are converging, and the market has done significant work on quality and integrity. What is missing is the demand-side clarity that would allow buyers to engage at scale and at pace.

Demand for high-quality carbon credits is shifting from voluntary to structural, but the speed of that shift depends on policy decisions that have not yet been made. The integration of removals into the EU ETS, the design of the EU Buyers' Club, the eventual scope of corporate claims guidance, and the future of CORSIA all sit on the demand side. None are technical problems. They are policy choices, and the timing of those choices will determine whether the European removals market scales smoothly or hits a stall before integration is complete.

In the meantime, the market needs to start pricing risk into project quality more accurately. Letting price signals reflect both the underlying integrity of a credit and the likelihood it delivers the tonne it claims would do more for market maturity than another round of methodology debates. The conversation about supply quality is largely settled. The conversation about how that quality should be priced is beginning.

This is where structured approaches and platforms like Carbonaires support faster, more credible decision-making in carbon markets, carbon removal and wider corporate decarbonisation strategy.

Carbonaires' Policy Manager Marika Niekowal spoke on the Day 1 panel “CRCF and the future of carbon removals”, alongside Roger Williams (EVP, Anew Climate) and Shikha Sharma (Global Technical Lead, Climate Change Projects, SGS), moderated by Erisa Senerdem of Argus Media. The panel focused on supply and demand trends in the European removals space and the state of the CRCF as it moves toward first issuances in 2027.

The supply side of the conversation was substantive. The CRCF's final policy architecture is on track to be finalised this year, with certification schemes still pending Commission recognition before issuances begin. From a project developer and certifier perspective, the framework is moving in the right direction.

The harder conversation, and the one Marika led on, was demand. It is encouraging that CRCF supply will start coming online from 2027, but the question of who buys the credits and under what use case remains unresolved. Eventual ETS integration for engineered removals offers one route, though as other sessions at the conference highlighted, the scale of that demand will depend on EU ETS prices rising significantly and revenue support being in place. Neither is guaranteed.

Marika raised the need for further demand-side policy from the EU to drive corporate confidence in using carbon credits. The EU Buyers' Club is a useful near-term mechanism for pooling voluntary demand, but on its own it will not generate the volumes needed to support the supply coming online. Without clearer Commission guidance that EU companies should use removal credits as part of credible decarbonisation strategies, the incentive structure remains weak. The Green Claims Directive's withdrawal removes another potential anchor for corporate claims, leaving buyers exposed to the same litigation and reputational risks that drive the current greenhushing dynamic.

At Carbonaires, we see three implications coming out of the panel and the wider conference.

First, the supply-demand mismatch in European removals is now a near-term policy question, not a long-term theoretical one. CRCF supply is real and coming. The volumes that emerge from 2027 onwards need a credible demand-side framework in place.

Second, the corporate buyer base will not move at scale without claims clarity. The cumulative effect of market complexity, shifting standards and litigation risk is producing measurable silence in the market. That silence is itself a barrier to price discovery and confidence.

Third, the work Carbonaires is doing through our policy advocacy and market access work is more relevant than ever. Cutting through complexity, simplifying access for corporate buyers and engaging directly with the demand-side policy debate is where structured market participants can have the most impact. Companies that act early on these shifts will be better positioned as the policy environment resolves.

The supply side of the European removals market is moving on schedule. The demand side is not. The decisions being made in Brussels over the next twelve months on ETS integration, on the EU Buyers' Club, and on corporate claims guidance will determine whether the European market scales smoothly through the back half of this decade or hits a structural stall just as the first CRCF credits begin to issue.